Clinton has 1267 Delegates; Obama has 1356
Umm… can we gain a little perspective, here, people? Since Obama’s successful wins in the last handful of fairly-insignificant primaries, news-writers around the world have been declaring it unanimously the end of Clinton’s chances and the near-assuredness of Obama securing the position of democratic nominee.
Jumping the gun a little, aren’t we folks?
In one of the closest nomination processes in recent history, numbers show that it’s still way too close to call:
| State | Date | Delegates | Obama | Clinton | ||
| Total | - | 1356 | 1267 | |||
| Super Delegates | - | 795 | 169 | 239 | ||
| Pledged Delegates | - | 2265 | 1187 | 1028 | ||
| Wisconsin | 02/19 | 74 | 41 | 28 | ||
| Hawaii | 02/19 | 20 | 12 | 4 | ||
| Virginia | 02/12 | 83 | 54 | 29 | ||
| Maryland | 02/12 | 70 C | 42 | 24 | ||
| District of Columbia | 02/12 | 15 C | 11 | 3 | ||
| Maine | 02/10 | 24 C | 15 | 9 | ||
| Washington | 02/09 | 78 | 53 | 25 | ||
| Louisiana | 02/09 | 56 C | 34 | 22 | ||
| Nebraska | 02/09 | 24 | 16 | 8 | ||
| Virgin Islands | 02/09 | 3 | 3 | - | ||
| California | 02/05 | 370 | 163 | 207 | ||
| New York | 02/05 | 232 C | 93 | 139 | ||
| Illinois | 02/05 | 153 | 104 | 49 | ||
| New Jersey | 02/05 | 107 | 48 | 59 | ||
| Massachusetts | 02/05 | 93 | 38 | 55 | ||
| Georgia | 02/05 | 87 | 61 | 26 | ||
| Minnesota | 02/05 | 72 | 48 | 24 | ||
| Missouri | 02/05 | 72 | 36 | 36 | ||
| Tennessee | 02/05 | 68 | 29 | 39 | ||
| Colorado | 02/05 | 55 C | 32 | 13 | ||
| Arizona | 02/05 | 56 C | 25 | 31 | ||
| Alabama | 02/05 | 52 | 27 | 25 | ||
| Connecticut | 02/05 | 48 C | 26 | 22 | ||
| Arkansas | 02/05 | 35 | 8 | 27 | ||
| Oklahoma | 02/05 | 38 C | 14 | 24 | ||
| Kansas | 02/05 | 32 C | 23 | 9 | ||
| New Mexico | 02/05 | 26 C | 12 | 14 | ||
| Utah | 02/05 | 23 | 14 | 9 | ||
| Delaware | 02/05 | 15 C | 9 | 6 | ||
| North Dakota | 02/05 | 13 | 8 | 5 | ||
| Idaho | 02/05 | 18 | 15 | 3 | ||
| Alaska | 02/05 | 13 C | 9 | 4 | ||
| American Samoa | 02/05 | 3 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Florida | 01/29 | 0 * C | - | - | ||
| South Carolina | 01/26 | 45 | 25 | 12 | ||
| Nevada | 01/19 | 25 | 13 | 12 | ||
| Michigan | 01/15 | 0 * | - | - | ||
| New Hampshire | 01/08 | 22 | 9 | 9 | ||
| Iowa | 01/03 | 45 | 16 | 15 | ||
| 2,025 Needed to Win (Delegate Counts Come From AP, CBS News, ABC News & RealClearPolitics) | ||||||
| Upcoming States & RealClearPolitics Averages | ||||||
| State | Date | Delegates | Obama | Clinton | ||
| Texas | 03/04 | 193 | 42.6 | 50.2 | ||
| Ohio | 03/04 | 141 | 38.0 | 52.7 | ||
| Rhode Island | 03/04 | 21 | ||||
| Vermont | 03/04 | 15 | ||||
| * Delegates After DNC Penalty C Closed Primary | ||||||
| More States | |||||||||
| State | Date | Delegates | Obama | Clinton | |||||
| Democrats Abroad | 02/12 | 7 | |||||||
| Wyoming | 03/08 | 12 C | |||||||
| Mississippi | 03/10 | 33 | |||||||
| Pennsylvania | 04/22 | 158 C | |||||||
| North Carolina | 05/06 | 115 | |||||||
| Indiana | 05/06 | 72 | |||||||
| West Virginia | 05/13 | 28 | |||||||
| Oregon | 05/20 | 52 C | |||||||
| Kentucky | 05/20 | 51 C | |||||||
| Montana | 06/03 | 16 | |||||||
| South Dakota | 06/03 | 15 C | |||||||
| Puerto Rico | 06/07 | 55 | |||||||
The real issue in this nomination process is the language use of the media pundits. A recent AP article declared:
She’s behind in money, delegates and momentum. She’s selling experience when everyone seems to want change. And all the cheering for the man who could be the first black president is drowning out any excitement for the first female.
Once deemed the nearly inevitable Democratic nominee, Clinton has now lost 10 presidential contests in a row as the battle heads for a March 4 showdown in Texas and Ohio — states she must win. By most measures, the combative New York senator is on the ropes.
“If she wins in Texas and Ohio, I think she’ll be the nominee,” former President Clinton said Wednesday during a speech to his wife’s supporters in Beaumont, Texas. “If you don’t deliver for her, I don’t think she can be.”
Those are big “ifs.”
…
Clinton clearly is capable of dragging the race out for weeks even if the turnaround she is seeking doesn’t materialize on March 4.
Riiiight, so what you’re really saying is that she should do the womanly thing and submit early, give up, have a cry, and go home? Because it’s clearly unseemly for one of her gender to continue “fighting” for nomination. It makes her look combative!
The numbers speak for themselves. This race isn’t over until it’s over. If only the reporters would stop focusing on “winners” and “losers” of states and start informing the average American about delegate totals and the closeness of this race.
This is just my paralyzing fear of election bandwagoning speaking.
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February 24th, 2008 at 10:23 am
[...] she goes down – and, as Sara rightfully points out, this thing isn’t over – I will be so disappointed if she goes down [...]